During their board meeting on 4 February, WPTC members shared their forecasts for the coming processing season: with a total of 40.75 million metric tonnes, the current expectation for the volume of tomatoes to be processed globally in 2026 are les than 1% higher than 2025’s final production of 40.43 million tonnes.
Amitom countries
Bulgaria
The current forecast is 40,000 tonnes.
Egypt
Currently the winter crop is getting processed, and quality looks promising . It should last until mid-April. Meanwhile transplanting of summer crop is about to start in February and will last until May, with harvesting scheduled from Mid-May till September. The initial forecast for 2026 remains 800,000 tonnes.
France
lt is too early to have a precise number but it is expected that production in 2026 will be reduced due to high stocks and the current expectation is for 150,000 to 160,000 tonnes to be processed, with a 10 to 15% reduction of surfaces planted.
Greece
A reduction of the volume to about 450,000 tonnes is expected.
Hungary
The yearly target and forecast is 70.000 tonnes, of which 40,000 tonnes for Univer.
Iran
There is currently a high level of uncertainty in Iran due to ongoing tensions between Iran and the US and concerns about potential escalation. The market is very quiet, and there is limited information available, as no one is certain about how the situation will develop.
At this stage, our indication for the 2026 crop is approximately 1.7 million tonnes. As we get closer to the harvest period and more reliable information becomes available, this will be updated.
Italy
Negotiations have started in the North but not yet in the South. The current processors’ intentions are for a total volume of 5.7 million tonnes with 3 million tonnes in the North, of which 200,000 tonnes organics, and 2.7 million tonnes in the Centre-South. Quantities are similar to last year. Following two years of bad crop especially in 2024, companies do not have high stocks and the situation is balanced.
There is no issue with water in the North but there are still concerns with water availability in the Puglia region due to the low level of the Occhito dam, although farmers can overcome the issue like last year by moving production to zones where water is available. Other competitive crop, notably cereals, offer low prices, so farmers are keen to plant tomatoes.
Portugal
There is still a lot of uncertainties, as negotiations with growers are ongoing. At the moment it is difficult to give a production estimate so last year’s initial forecast of 1.4 million tonnes is used. More clarity will be obtained in the next week or so as all contracts must be signed by 16 February.
Serbia
The expectations for 2026 are for a total of 52,000 tonnes, of which 45,000 tonnes for Polimark.
Spain
The situation is not very clear. The discussions with farmers on price started this week and there is no clarity yet on the surfaces which will be contracted. A very preliminary estimate would be 2.6 million tonnes based on similar hectares planted than last year, but yields were very low last year.
There is no issue with water in Andalusia this year, while in Extremadura the concern is more that there is too much water and fields are saturated or even flooded at the moment with the forecast for more rains during the next ten days.
Tunisia
Initial estimates of the area planted with seasonal tomatoes are around 15,000 hectares. With regard to processing forecasts, meetings with the various stakeholders are scheduled from mid-February onwards to discuss this issue.
Turkey
In 2025, production amounted to 2,200,000 tonnes. The main reason for this low production is the reduction in planting areas due to low contract prices. If farmers’ price expectation is met in 2026, production could reach 2,500,000 to 2,600,000 tonnes. Moreover, the prices of competing products (such as cotton and corn) are also low, so producers will remain focused on tomato planting.
Ukraine
The current forecast is 550,000 tonnes.
Other WPTC countries in the Northern Hemisphere
California
According to the 2O26 California Processing Report released on 23 January the current estimate is 9.8 million short tons (8.89 million metric tonnes) from 185,000 acres. This is based on an average yield of 53 t/acre which is a level only reached last year so there is uncertainty that this volume will be attained. Surfaces should reduce by 10%, maybe even further. Weather and water availability are good so far.
Canada
Preliminary contract indications are for approximately 595,000 shorts tons (540,000 metric tonnes) in 2026 following a very good year in 2025 which saw the biggest harvest in recent years.
China
Crop Forecast for 2026 is 7 million tonnes of fresh tomatoes.
Japan
It is expected that 400 hectares will be planted for a production of 24,000 tonnes.
Nigeria
The forecast is to process 1,200 tonnes in 2026.
Other WPTC countries in the Southern Hemisphere
Argentina
The initial forecast was 427,894 tonnes from the 5,120 hectares planted but hailstorms last week damaged about 320 hectares. It is too early to precisely evaluate the losses but reasonable to reduce the forecast to 400,000 tonnes. There was a huge season in 2025 at about 600,000 tonnes so there is a major reduction in volume this year.
Australia
The production forecast remains 166,000 tonnes from about 1,500 ha planted, which is a reduction of about 500 ha from what is normally planted. Market forces are reducing the production level. Harvest started on the 26th of January and is processing has begun at Kagome. SPC are likely to start processing in about 2 weeks’ time. We have experienced back-to-back heat waves in January (a heat wave here being temperatures above 40 degrees Celsius recorded over successive days), with a long stretch of approximately a week when temperatures ranged between 4O and 45 °C. Luckily it did not rain but there have been some field leakage and some low brix low to mid 4s. Overall crop condition have now improved with brix at about 5.2-5.3 and yields do not seem to have been affected. Hopefully there will be no effect of the heatwave on the late crop which could reduce in a volume reduction. Time will tell but plants for the late crop look good for now.
Brazil
The current forecast is just over 1.5 million tonnes, The surveys indicate a further decrease in planted area and a trend towards a slightly higher volume than in 2025. It is believed that these numbers will change until March, which is when transplanting will be taking place in all regions of the country.
Chile
The first factories opened two weeks ago with the others starting this week. Weather conditions are normal, with warm weather. The only concern is how much the broomrape infestation will affect the yields. These are currently estimated at 95 to 100 t/ha, and the forecast remains unchanged at 1.3 million tonnes.
Peru
The program remains unchanged and production should finish at 150,000 tonnes.
South Africa
It is still early days with production starting this month in the Western Cape region where it is currently very dry. The total forecast remains 130,000 tonnes for the 2026 season.
