The winter crop is in its last loop which is supposed to last till 3rd week of April. The early summer crop will start around 10th of May. The overall forecast remains 500,000 tonnes with prices currently at abut 130 USD per tonne ex-field. Quality is good.
The volume of the contracts is 160,000 tonnes but the total surfaces are not yet confirmed. A few growers started planting last week in the South-East, but most will start next week unless the cold weather which is forecast is too severe. In the South-West planting will start mid-April. Water availability should not be an issue this year although winter rainfall was low, with some risk however for the late crop. Prices are still being negotiated by each company individually and should be in the order of 135-140 euros ex-field.
Conditions are generally good. There is not as much water as usual but there is no worry of scarcity for the summer. Weather is currently cold and wet, and planting should start on 1st April in the south. Farmers are keen to plant tomatoes, so the forecast is raised to 440,000 tonnes. Prices will c. 150 euros per tonnes delivered.
The 100.000 tonnes forecast remains for the country. Raw tomato price is ca. 135 euro per tons ex-field, but as it is agreed on HUF basis with the farmers, it can slightly change due to exchange rate changes.
In the south, the water availability in the reservoirs is good and more surfaces will be planted in Puglia compared to last year. Expectations are for an increase of 7 to 8% in surfaces and volumes in the south, from 2.59 million tonnes in 2022 to 2.80 million tonnes in 2023. Transplanting began this week in Caserta and will start next week in Puglia. No agreement on prices yet but they could increase by a significant percentage.
In the north, planting should start next week. There are concerns for the water availability for the end of the season especially in the north-west as the snowfall this winter was low although some storms last week eased up the drought in the north-east (Ferrara Ravenna provinces). The total surfaces should remain unchanged compared last year but there could be some reduction in the late crop. Negotiations have stalled with processors offering around 130 euros and growers wanting 155 euros.
There is no change to the overall forecast of 5.7 million tonnes.
The forecast remains unchanged at 1.45 million tonnes. Weather is warm and dry and planting is starting.
The forecast remains unchanged at 650,000 tonnes.
There is no change to the forecast which remains 2.6 million tonnes. Planting started last week in Andalusia and this week in Extremadura. Water allocation is at 60% of normal, better than last year. The weather is currently good and quite dry. As published a few weeks ago, the price is 150 euros per tonne ex-field.
The forecasted plantation area is confirmed at around 10,000 hectares for a processed volume of around 500,000 tonnes. Operations started on 22 February and the progress of planting is 65%-70%. The water situation (as of 19 March 2023) is nearly 740 million m3 in 36 dams, which represents 32% of their filling capacity.
The forecast is now raised to 2.6 million tonnes as farmers are keen to plant tomatoes and stocks of tomato products are depleted due to increased shipments. Surfaces will increase in all regions including Konya where production has been growing in recent years. The weather is currently a bit cool so planting has stopped but should restart next week.
It is expected that a volume of 500 000 to 600 000 tonnes of tomatoes will be processed in 2023.
OTHER NORTHERN HEMISPHERE COUNTRIES
Surfaces planted in 2023 should increase by 9% to 20,130 hectares, of which 14,150 ha in Goais, 3,280 ha in Sao Paulo and 2,700 ha in Minas Gerais. The total volume processed was expected to be 1,984,200 tonnes, 22% more than the 1,632,210 tonnes processed in 2022. Recent rains may disrupt the start of the season although the long-term forecast is that of 2023 being a El Nino year, which is normally favourable for a good tomato crop (see report attached).
After 3 years of extremely dry conditions, this year California has experienced incredible amounts of precipitation. The abnormally large amount of snow and rainfall has resulted in California growers receiving significant water allocations. What that means for this year is a decrease in the amount of fallow land due to the drought and the ability for our industry to contract to meet market demands. As with anything else, there can be too much of a good thing. While the precipitation has relieved the state of the extreme drought conditions, the continued rainfall in the central valley has materially delayed transplanting. At this time, we are approximately 12-16 days behind on the calendar. Some growers in the south have been able to plant in very small windows (in less-than-ideal conditions) in between the rain events over the past month but the volumes are much less than scheduled at this point. In the Northern part of the state, we hope transplanting can begin by the end of the first week in April.
The March 1st, 2023 inventory is appended to this report.
Ontario preliminary projected contract tonnage for 2023 is 584,000 short tons (530,000 metric tonnes). The weather for March has varied between mild and cold temperatures with some rain or snow.
The forecast remains 7.3 million tonnes. The estimate is based on seeds sales, and it is too early to get information on the surfaces in the different regions and the price of tomatoes. China usually transplants at the end of April, and relatively accurate regional data should be available after at that time.
The expected surfaces (to be) planted are 470 ha for a volume of tomatoes to be processed of 29,000 tonnes.
SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE COUNTRIES
This season was very troublesome for growers and processors, with frosts at the beginning and at the end of season combined with high temperatures and hails affecting final yields both in San Juan and Mendoza provinces. The final numbers will be released in a month when the harvest is finished but it is estimated a yield reduction around 13 % of the last forecast, therefore, today the estimation is 576,000 tonnes.
Australia planted a total area of 1,503 ha this season, with 87 ha lost to flooding after planting, leaving 1,416 ha viable for production. The delays from persistent wet weather in Spring and resulting floods meant that up to 1000 ha of ground has been left un-planted.
A mild summer has been interrupted by persistent cool periods and only a few hot spells, leading to slower than normal growth in the majority of crops, causing yields to be affected and we’re experiencing prolonged ripening for all crops. On top of this, multiple hail events in different regions have reduced yield significantly and added strain to an already tough season. Harvest status YTD for 2023 is approximately 34,000 tonnes, which for reference is about 25% of the usual tonnage that traditionally goes through processing by this time of year. Apart from a few small rain events during harvest, we have had a relatively interruption free harvest to date. Water availability remains high with water storages at or above 90% capacity before 2023 winter rainfalls. This will mean lower water prices for current season and the for the year ahead. Forecast now is 102,950 tonnes.
The harvest will continue until the end of April. This March has been one of the warmest in history which may lead to a small reduction in the final volume compared with the estimate of 1.15 million tonnes, which is maintained for now but with a minor downwards trend.
South Africa contracted in total a 155,000 tonnes harvest for the 2023 season. The summer production Western Cape areas contracted 53,000 tonnes, of which 50% has already been delivered and on schedule. The Limpopo winter production contracted to 102,000 tonnes, which will commence during April till end October. Both areas, received out of season precipitation, which put pressure on the harvesting process and transplanting schedules. Some processors and about 25% of the growers took the risks to trade without a processing contract and both thus risks the opportunistic prices on the South Africa open market during the winter season.