The world production estimate is back below 40 million tonnes as across Europe and the Mediterranean a widespread heatwave during the second half of June and some localised storms have triggered downward crop forecasts in several countries, with worries about potential losses in many regions. Italy, however, bucked the trend by raising its forecast to 6.1 million tonnes due to expanded planting areas. On the American continent, harvesting is successfully underway in California ahead of schedule, while Canada reports healthy crop progression despite high humidity. Heavy rains and disease in May may lead to reduced productivity in Brazil. No change is reported in China.

Amitom countries

Egypt

Now we’ve started the summer crop and quantities are increasing from day to another. Quality is good, but temperature in average is 38°C during the day & 27°C during night. The forecast remain the same so far, and hope not to see higher temperatures in the coming two months.

France

Both the Southeast and Southwest regions were affected by a long heatwave over the last two weeks which may have some effect on the later part of the crop while the early crop seems to look fine. Temperatures are now lower but another heatwave is expected from the end of the week, and furthermore with wind. There are no diseases. A total of 2,090 hectares were planted, down from 2,422 hectares in 2025, but with a significant increase of the organic surfaces, to 400 ha. The forecast remains 150,000 tonnes.

Greece

The plant development is good in all regions and pointing towards a slightly earlier crop. Storms with some hail and strong winds in the centre two weeks ago caused some damages and the probable loss of about 10, 000 tonnes, meaning the total forecast is now reduced to 440,000 tonnes.

Hungary

The tomato plants are developing nicely and evenly. There has been a brutal heat wave in recent days with a record high of 42°C yesterday. Due to the reduction in total field area, irrigation capacities are still ok with our farmers.

Iran

The 2026 Iranian tomato crop was previously forecast at approximately 2.1 million tonnes. However, based on the latest information received from growers and market sources, particularly from the southern production regions, we are revising our forecast downward to 1.7 million tonnes. Harvesting in southern Iran has produced lower-than-expected yields, and overall crop performance has not met earlier expectations. As a result, we believe a reduction in the production forecast is justified. The main factors behind this revision are the continued water shortage, which remains the most significant challenge for tomato production, as well as ongoing uncertainty in the Iranian market due to geopolitical developments. Harvesting in the northern and western regions of Iran is expected to begin in the coming weeks. We will continue to monitor crop conditions and harvest progress closely and will provide updated information as more reliable production data becomes available. In terms of trade, the Iranian government’s export ban on tomatoes has now been lifted, allowing growers and exporters to resume exports to international markets.

Italy

In the North, we are coming off two weeks of scorching heat, with significant climate anomalies (see the charts at ARPAE’s regional climate graphs, which track average regional temperature and cumulative rainfall against the 1991–2020 climate reference period). With these extreme temperatures, crops are under stress and facing a persistent water deficit, with possible repercussions on fruit set, fruit size, and yield, although it is not yet possible to estimate the damage. In some province (for example Parma and Piacenza) river water withdrawal has rapidly dropped to minimal levels and will shortly be suspended entirely, under environmental regulations governing the Minimum Vital Flow (DMV) of watercourses. Farmers will therefore be able to rely only on well water, resulting in a further increase in cultivation costs Transplanting operations were completed in the second week of June. Final data collection on hectares as of 30 June will be available around 15 July, but current estimates point to an increase in planted area of roughly 20% for organic and a lower rate (4-5%) for conventional. At a recent meeting between growers’ associations (OP) and industry, it was confirmed that early crops and special varieties (cherry tomatoes) are expected to see earlier ripening and harvest (1 week in advance compared to the normal). No particular plant diseases have been reported on the crops at this time.
The overall production estimate has been raised to 3.1 million tonnes due to the increase in planted area compared to last year, pending clarity on the impact of the heatwave on crop productivity.

In the Centre and South, the prices were set on 17 June at 140 euros per tonne for round tomatoes, 150 euros for long, which is 10 euros lower than in 2025. Price for organic are 45 euros higher. The region also suffered from the heatwave, which may affect the yields mainly from the second half of August, although temperatures dropped at night for may not have been too much flower drop. It seems however that early fruits may be smaller than normal. This year, contrarily to 2025, there is no issue with availability of water.
Although the results of the satellite analysis will only be available on 20 July, a survey shows that surfaces planted have increased by about 10%, as farmers were keen to plant.
The forecast in the Centre/South is therefore raised from 2.8 to 3.0 million tonnes, meaning the total for Italy is up from 5.8 to 6.1 million tonnes.

Portugal

Transplanting operations finished on time and the weather in June has been more or less acceptable. Another heatwave is however starting today and should last for the next 7 to 10 days, which may affect the fields. Harvest is expected to start at the end of July, and the forecast remains unchanged at 1.3 million tonnes.

Serbia

Planting finished on 7 June and conditions were good until ten days ago when the heatwave started. It rained yesterday. There is no change to the forecast of 57,000 tonnes.

Spain

The final surfaces planted are about 2% lower than expected. Also, the temperatures which had lowered in the last few days after the long heatwave of the last couple of weeks are rising again, which may cause some flower abortions. Some storms a-with hail in Extremadura have also lead to the development of diseases which may contribute to a reduction in the size of the crop. Consequently, the forecast is reduced to 2.7 million tonnes, with further reductions probable. The harvest should start during the third week of July in Andalucia.

Tunisia

The processing season for industrial tomatoes began on 22 June. To date, seven processing plants are in operation, but data on processing rates is not yet available. The total planted area is approximately 15,500 hectares.

Turkiye

Conditions have been normal with no high heat and after a late planting temperatures are now favourable for a good crop development with a slight delay of 5 to 10 days. Water availability is good and there are no diseases. The forecast remains 2.45 million tonnes.

Ukraine

Planting finished by mid-June and the forecast remains 550,000 tonnes with the harvest scheduled to start during the second week in August. Weather has been good so far, with some rain, and although it is currently hot it is not too bad.

Other WPTC countries

Brazil

Weather issues caused by unusually heavy rainfall in May and June in São Paulo and Goias impacted certain areas, resulting in severe damage and increased disease incidence, which in turn led to a drop in expected productivity. Large-scale processing is expected to begin in the second week of July, following planting delays in March caused by the rains.

California

The weather has been very mild for this time of year over the last week. Organic harvest started on June 29th and conventional harvest started on July 1. Volumes will pick up over the next week and we are a few days ahead of schedule at this time.

Canada

June started with mild temperatures and scattered rainfall and ended with heat and humidity well above historical averages. The tomato crop is progressing well, and disease pressure remains low. This season, there are 11,977 acres planted (c. 4850 hectares), with 571,560 short tons (518,500 metric tonnes) contracted.

China

There is no change to report.

Japan

There have been no changes since the last report and the expec ted volume remains 24,000 tonnes. Planting was completed across all regions by the end of June. Although precipitation has been higher than usual this year, crop growth has generally proceeded well nationwide so far.

South Africa

The RSA is still on a planned projection of 130 000 tonnes unchanged. The season is past the 50% mark on volumes received. The winter production runs behind schedule due to slower ripening conditions, both due to a cool winter season and lower yields due to persistent disease pressures. Crop volumes expected to be lowered within next forecast when there are more yield certainties.

WPTC crop update as of 3 July 2026