WPTC crop update as of 14 October 2022
The global world production estimate currently stands at 37,2 million tonnes but will be readjusted on 25 October when the preliminary production figures for all countries are available.
There is no change to the forecast. The summer season during which all factories are processing is finished. The in-between seasons small Nili crop has already started, and the winter season which will start soon is looking promising.
We finished the season last week in the morning of Friday 7 October. From memory, this is our earliest and shortest season. Unfortunately, we only reached 141,910 tonnes, of which 25,172 are organic. The average brix is 4.87 and the penalties 6.42%. We are at 85-87% of the forecast according to the POs or the processors, but however at more than 100% for organic and only 83% for conventional. We do not yet have the average yields, but they are low in conventional, especially for the most productive zone usually in the Camargue. The South-West zone of France was finally able to return to normal production after two bad years.
The season is now over. It has been a bad season overall with poor field yields resulting in lower volume processed than companies intended. Factory yields however were normal, with a good fruit quality.
Following some rains in September, the harvest ended a week ago with about 80,000 tonnes processed with an average brix of 5. Larger surfaces were planted this year, but production could not be increased due to poor weather conditions.
In the North, the season ended with 2.89 million tonnes processed (94% of the contracted volumes), average brix was 4.84 and average yield per hectare 78 tonnes. These figures are better than the initial forecast, but lower than last crop. All processors claim for an exceptionally costly tomato crop due to extremely high cost for energy and packaging combined with lower processing yield.
In the South, two or three factories are still running, and it is estimated that the final volume will be between 2.58 and 2.6 million tonnes. The conditions were not too bad in September with not as much rain as feared so a bigger volume than expected was processed. Market demand is very high, especially for 3 & 5 kg cans, and stocks low so factories processed as much as they could. Costs however were very high with canned tomatoes estimated costing nearly double as last year to produce due to increased price of tomatoes and energy mainly.
Altogether the production in Italy will be close to 5.47 to 5.5 million tonnes.
One plant is still running and will close next weekend. All other plants ended processing on 8 October with 95% of the contract quantities. There were some damages because of the rains, reflected in the reduced forecast indicated during the last meeting but the tomatoes that could be harvested afterward were of average quality. Overall brix this season was a bit lower than in 2021. The final figure will be close 1.3 million tonnes.
The last factory closed in Extremadura on 9 October. In the North the factories are starting to close but some will still work until the end of next week. Some rains are forecast for the next days. The final figures are not yet available, but the best estimate for Spain is 2.1 million tonnes. It has been a complex and difficult campaign affected by long heat waves in June and July and rains in September. Yields have been between 10 to 20% lower than usual. Tunisia No change from the last update.
The harvest should be finishing in about a week in the Konya region where 4 or 5 factories are processing about 5 to 6000 tonnes per day. Colour is now pretty low. The overall estimate remains 2.35 million tonnes.
According to the figures collected by PTAB, 582,981 short tons (528,871 metric tonnes) were delivered to the factories during week ending 8 October, with an estimated 354,316 short tons (321,430 metric tonnes) expected to be delivered during the week ending 15 October. This would bring the year-to-date total to an estimated 10,208,454 short tons (9,260,954 metric tonnes). Quantities delivered to the plants are declining quickly. Some factories, especially in the south, already closed for the season, but others will continue processing for a couple more weeks.
Other US states
Factories are still processing in Midwest but should finish up next week. The weather has been cool and dry and fruit quality is still very good.
Harvest is wrapping up with 589,521 short tons (534,804 metric tonnes), which just over 106% of total contract volumes being delivered to date.
The total amount of tomatoes processed in China is 6.2 million tonnes, of which 3.68 million tonnes in northern Xinjiang, 1.36 million tonnes in southern Xinjiang, 0.06 million tonnes in Gansu, 1.10 million tonnes in Inner Mongolia. The 2022 crop starts at the end of July and ends at the end of September, with stable production. The temperature from August to September was low, and the accumulated temperature was lower than the level of the same period in the past, which led to a slow down in the maturity of raw materials. The factories were competing for raw materials again, and the colour value of tomato paste was not very well. Driven by the international market price of tomato paste, the production enterprises were highly motivated, the raw material competition was fierce, and the raw material price was high.
The harvest will end mid-October, and is expected to be 27,000 tonnes, the same as the previous report.